The Oscar race for Best Actress continues to fluctuate. After nominations were announced Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) took back the lead in our racetrack odds from Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), who had surged following the Golden Globes.

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Stone had the early advantage after “Poor Things” made the rounds at late-summer and fall film festivals to overwhelming critical acclaim. But Gladstone started putting pressure on her after it was announced that the “Flower Moon” actress would be campaigned as a lead actress instead of as a supporting actress for the epic film.

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Then came the Globes, where Stone won Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress while Gladstone claimed Best Film Drama Actress. The combination of her stirring acceptance speech and the historic nature of her victory — it was the first such win for a Native American actress — not to mention her success with regional critics’ awards groups, prompted her rise into first place in our racetrack odds.

But then came signs of vulnerability. First Stone beat Gladstone for Best Actress at the Critics Choice Awards. Then the BAFTA nominations were announced, and Stone was a nominee … but Gladstone was not. That was a significant snub because the BAFTAs are a peer-group award just like the Oscars are, and the two have overlapping memberships.

SEEOscar nominations: Full list of contenders in all 23 categories

Finally the Oscar nominations were announced, and “Flower Moon” appeared vulnerable yet again. It was snubbed for Best Adapted Screenplay and Leonardo DiCaprio missed in the Best Actor race, which might suggest a lack of passionate support for the film across the academy. And why does that matter? Because the whole academy membership will vote for the Oscar winners in all categories.

That said, it’s possible to win Best Actress even if your film isn’t one of the academy’s favorites — just ask Renee Zellweger, whose “Judy” performance won even though that film only had one other Oscar nom, Best Makeup and Hairstyling. Ten-time nominee “Flower Moon” clearly has more support than that. We’ll have to wait and see what the SAG Awards say. That’ll be an especially important peer-group award for Gladstone to win since she’s not nominated at the BAFTAs.

As of this writing four out of seven Expert journalists who have chimed in are betting on Stone, compared to two who say it’ll be Gladstone and one who’s going out on a limb for Sandra Huller (“Anatomy of a Fall”). Will Stone maintain her lead all the way to her second Oscar (she previously won Best Actress for “La La Land”)? Or can Gladstone make a comeback?

PREDICTthe 2024 Oscar winners

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